Reflecting on Andrew McCutchen's Career Journey

The Rise and Fall of Andrew McCutchen

When you think about legendary baseball careers, names like Ted Williams and David Ortiz come to mind as players who retired at the top of their game. Yet, the reality is that most athletes, even the exceptional ones, don’t get that send-off. Andrew McCutchen's recent release by the Texas Rangers underscores this harsh truth. After struggling to a mere .197 batting average over 37 games, he finds himself possibly at the twilight of what was once a remarkable career. While there's still a chance he could find a spot on another team as a backup, it’s hard to ignore the reality: we may be witnessing the end of his playing days. Just a decade ago, projections suggested a Hall of Fame future for him. To understand how we arrived at this point, let’s rewind to early 2016. Back then, McCutchen was a bright star—a five-time All-Star boasting four Silver Slugger awards and a 2013 MVP. He was a cornerstone of the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that had just made the playoffs three consecutive seasons and won 98 games in 2015—a feat that now seems like an ancient memory. Fortunately for the Pirates, they hadn’t yet faced the salary drain that often forces teams to let go of their best players; McCutchen was secure with a lucrative six-year, $51 million deal that included a team option for a seventh year. Statistically, McCutchen was on a trajectory that hinted at Cooperstown. By the time he approached his 29th birthday, he had accumulated 41 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), with an impressive .298/.388/.496 batting line. His performance positioned him among the most effective young center fielders in Major League Baseball history. In fact, his stats through his age-28 season placed him in elite company: It’s notable that even as greats like Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle offer stiff competition, McCutchen's numbers were a strong indicator of a burgeoning Hall of Fame candidacy. Back in 2015, projections from systems like ZiPS anticipated a typical decline phase for him, without raising major red flags. The stark reality sets in as we analyze his decline, particularly since 2015 marked the last time McCutchen enjoyed a season with 4 WAR. His subsequent years saw a significant drop-off, with only a single season surpassing 2 WAR in the following decade. While ZiPS initially didn’t predict such a dire descent until much later, the evidence points to a career trajectory that has spiraled downward more rapidly than anticipated. McCutchen's decline isn't easily tied down to any single cause. In 2016, he encountered difficulties due to a severely jammed thumb, leading to his extensive struggles that season. Although he rebounded somewhat in the years that followed, the gradual erosion of his defense and a dip in contact rate became areas of concern. Interestingly, his sprint speed remained above the 90th percentile until the 2022 season—implying that he wasn't lacking in physical capability. As it stands, McCutchen's Hall of Fame bid is likely to meet skepticism. While his statistical standing in Jay Jaffe’s JAWS for center fielders puts him at 30th, that isn’t particularly encouraging when it comes to induction prospects. On the flipside, his performance shines brighter when viewed through the lens of FanGraphs WAR, where he ranks 13th in peak fWAR among center fielders. This discrepancy raises questions about how we view value in player metrics. If this indeed marks the conclusion of McCutchen's career, it would be a disservice to let his narrative be defined merely by what could have been. For nearly a decade, his contributions placed him among the elite of the game, reincorporating the Pittsburgh franchise into baseball discussions. His later years may not have captivated the spotlight like the beginning, yet it's vital that we remember him as more than just another athlete who faded away—he was a player who left an indelible mark on the sport.

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